Small-scale land use change modelling using transient groundwater levels and salinities as driving factors – An example from a sub-catchment of Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin

Although land-use change (LUC) can have detrimental environmental impacts, very few studies explored the idea that changes in groundwater conditions and water management directly influence LU. This study models how policies, quality (as salinity) availability drive impact LUC at a small scale. The Angas Bremer (AB) irrigation district (Murray-Darling Basin, Australia) was used as case because it provides rare example of complex transient management. key questions raised were (i) has LU, more specifically agricultural practices, changed availability; (ii) (salinity levels) subsequently driven influenced policy changes; and, (iii) improved consequence LU changes. Using newly-developed Patch-generating Simulation (PLUS) model, simulated driving factors analysed for period 1949–2014. To best our knowledge, PLUS able to successfully model groundwater-driven small, local scale first time international literature. results show depend on extent place, salinity levels led new policy, which turn dictated where water-efficient crops favoured. likely contributed recovery low salinity, i.e. pre-development conditions. Groundwater-related are responsible 5–12% depending land use phase.